KXBTCD-25SEP2117-T125249.99

Bitcoin price on Sep 21, 2025?

$125,250 or above

$0.82

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.0	$0.82	$0.82	82.0¢	58.16%
NO	$0.18	$0.59	$1.0	82.0¢	50.36%

Overround (asks): 82.0% Underround (bids): 82.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.0	0	$0.82	3564
NO	$0.18	3564	$1.0	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.82	0.0	0
$0.59	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.000 – 0.820
Band Width	0.820

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-23.84
NO Edge (ticks)	-58.16
Vig (bps/h)	1236

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	0.82
ΔSpread (¢)	82.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-09-20 04:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2025-09-21 05:00 PM ET (0d 6h 32m)
Expected Expiration	2025-09-21 05:05 PM ET (0d 6h 37m)

Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity	292248
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	0
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	2922.48
0.25	0.0	2922.48
0.50	0.0	2922.48
0.75	0.0	2922.48
0.95	2922.48	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 125249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Market Context & Data Summary

Event: Bitcoin price on Sep 21, 2025, exceeding $125,249.99.

Implied P(YES) (mid): 82% | YES/NO spreads: 0.82¢ / 1.0¢ | Overround (asks): 82% | Underround (bids): 82%.

Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows no active bids for "YES" and a significant depth on "NO" with a bid size of 3,564.

Recent prints: No notable trade activity in the 24 hours.

External context: - Bitcoin price dynamics remain under scrutiny as interest rates fluctuate, impacting speculative investments (Source: CME). - Current market conditions indicate a restrictive monetary policy, potentially suppressing high-risk assets like Bitcoin (Source: Fed). - Historical price correlations suggest a tendency for Bitcoin to rally prior to significant regulatory announcements (Source: Bloomberg).

View & Probability

Analyst P(YES): 75%.

Rationale: Considering current macroeconomic pressures, the high implied probability reflects speculative trends rather than fundamental strength in Bitcoin pricing.

Actionable Trading Recommendations

Idea 1 — Short "YES" - Entry: $0.82 - Invalid/Stop: $1.00 - Target: $0.50 - Thesis: High speculative pricing indicates overvaluation ahead of expiration. - Key risks/catalysts: - Strong upward momentum if macro conditions shift favorably. - Regulatory clarity could bolster Bitcoin prices unexpectedly.

Idea 2 — Long "NO" - Entry: $0.18 - Invalid/Stop: $0.10 - Target: $0.30 - Thesis: Implied market overestimates "YES" probability given economic constraints. - Key risks/catalysts: - Sudden bullish sentiment triggered by positive news. - Large institutional trades could shift market perception.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Last trade/close (ET): September 20, 2025, 23:57 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): September 21, 2025, 21:05 ET.
Known release windows: Updates from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates could affect market sentiment pre-expiration.

Sources

CME — https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies.html — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
Bloomberg — https://www.bloomberg.com/markets — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
TradingView — https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/prices/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
CoinDesk — https://www.coindesk.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/cryptocurrencies/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
CoindMarketCap — https://coinmarketcap.com — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
SEC — https://www.sec.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET
MarketWatch — https://www.marketwatch.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-21 12:00 ET

Last updated: 2025-09-21T03:58:03.400581

Technical Indicators

Bitcoin Event Probabilities (Yes = BRTI ≥ threshold at event time)

Ticker	Event (ET)	Threshold ($)	Current Price ($)	Ensemble	A Const	B Real	C EWMA	D Park

A: constant annual σ; B: realized σ (last hour); C: EWMA σ; D: Parkinson σ (if highs/lows available). Ensemble = mean of available models.

Volatility Models

σ A (Const)	0.6
σ B (Realized, 1h)	0.0607
σ C (EWMA, 1h)	0.0531
σ D (Parkinson)	0.0366
μ (Last-hour drift)	-0.560198