FED-25OCT-T4.75
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Oct 29, 2025 meeting?
4.75%
$0.01
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 5499 |
| NO | $0.99 | 5499 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 17780 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-08-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-29 01:55 PM ET (37d 18h 46m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 02:05 PM ET (37d 18h 56m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 70383223 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 191 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 107.23 | 686684.84 |
| 0.25 | 2783.24 | 684062.08 |
| 0.50 | 13670.77 | 673172.3 |
| 0.75 | 26742.34 | 660049.73 |
| 0.95 | 123955.03 | 594472.04 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 29, 2025 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 29, 2025 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T23:08:34.297266
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