KXACPI-2025-2.8
Will **inflation** in 2025 be above_below_between ?
$0.3
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.25 | $0.28 | $0.3 | 5.0¢ | 27.5% |
| NO | $0.7 | $0.72 | $0.75 | 5.0¢ | 72.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.25 | 1915 | $0.3 | 107 |
| NO | $0.7 | 107 | $0.75 | 1915 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2974 | 0.8942 | 1915 |
| $0.7026 | -0.8942 | 180 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.250 – 0.300 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0174 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-12-20 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-01-12 08:25 AM ET (112d 17h 24m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-12 10:00 AM ET (112d 18h 59m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 48015592 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 7457 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 656.76 | 433583.56 |
| 0.25 | 3216.7 | 431452.37 |
| 0.50 | 8651.38 | 425538.94 |
| 0.75 | 17590.63 | 420498.94 |
| 0.95 | 71292.22 | 386693.7 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items is between 2.6% to 3% in 2025 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Please note that the value is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, as is reported in the monthly BLS CPI news releases. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see ACPI in the Rulebook for the legally binding terms and conditions.
The market will close at 8:25 AM ET on the earliest day the data is expected to be released. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or fourteen days thereafter.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T20:00:42.454708
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