KXACQANNOUNEWARNER-26JAN01-AMAZWARN
Will Amazon announce acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.1

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.02 $0.06 $0.1 8.0¢ 6.0%
NO $0.9 $0.94 $0.98 8.0¢ 94.0%
Overround (asks): 8.0% Underround (bids): 8.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.02 0 $0.1 0
NO $0.9 0 $0.98 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.06 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0200.100
Band Width0.080

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.0
NO Edge (ticks)-4.0
Vig (bps/h)800

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.04
ΔSpread (¢) 6.0
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity300564
24h Volume24
Open Interest123
OI Turnover (24h)0.2
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Amazon announces an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify. The deal does not need to close as long as an agreement has been announced. Regulatory blocking or later cancellation does not affect resolution. Cross-border transactions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, or minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. The acquisition can be structured as asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, or takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify, but those limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-12T10:22:54.789245

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