KXACQANNOUNEWARNER-26JAN01-NETFWARN
Will Netflix announce acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.14
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | $0.1 | $0.14 | 9.0¢ | 9.5% |
| NO | $0.86 | $0.91 | $0.95 | 9.0¢ | 90.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | 0 | $0.14 | 0 |
| NO | $0.86 | 0 | $0.95 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.91 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.050 – 0.140 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.04 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 329491 |
| 24h Volume | 83 |
| Open Interest | 804 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.1 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Netflix announces an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify. The deal does not need to close as long as an agreement has been announced. Regulatory blocking or later cancellation does not affect resolution. Cross-border transactions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, or minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. The acquisition can be structured as asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, or takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify, but those limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T11:25:52.490292
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