KXBORDER-25DEC31-SENATE
Border bill passes Senate before election day
$0.04
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.04 | 2.0¢ | 3.0% |
| NO | $0.96 | $0.97 | $0.98 | 2.0¢ | 97.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.02 | 0 | $0.04 | 0 |
| NO | $0.96 | 0 | $0.98 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.03 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.97 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.020 – 0.040 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 9905101 |
| 24h Volume | 30 |
| Open Interest | 16777 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Senate passes a border security bill (as defined in the rules) before 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A border bill must do one of the following: (1) Give the executive branch legal authority (or require it) to effectively suspend asylum in between official ports of entry when migrant crossings surpass certain thresholds (2) Increase the number of green cards issued annually (3) Provide or expedite work permits to children of those on H1-B visas (4) Provide or expedite lawyers to unaccompanied minors deemed mentally incompetent (5) Provide or expedite work permits for undocumented persons released out of U.S. custody
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T19:25:08.584816
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