KXBRENNANCHARGE-26JAN01
Will John Brennan be charged with a federal crime in 2025?
$0.52
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.46 | $0.49 | $0.52 | 6.0¢ | 49.0% |
| NO | $0.48 | $0.51 | $0.54 | 6.0¢ | 51.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.46 | 0 | $0.52 | 0 |
| NO | $0.48 | 0 | $0.54 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.49 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.51 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.460 – 0.520 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 600 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.13 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 377893 |
| 24h Volume | 30 |
| Open Interest | 1172 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If John Brennan has been formally charged with any federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-11-12T12:44:01.782859
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →