KXCOLOMBIASENATE-26-GOVT
Who will win the next Colombian Senate election?
$0.4
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | $0.35 | $0.4 | 10.0¢ | 35.0% |
| NO | $0.6 | $0.65 | $0.7 | 10.0¢ | 65.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | 49 | $0.4 | 50 |
| NO | $0.6 | 50 | $0.7 | 49 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3495 | -0.0101 | 49 |
| $0.6505 | 0.0101 | 50 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.300 – 0.400 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0005 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-16 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2027-05-31 10:00 AM ET (614d 11h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-05-31 10:00 AM ET (249d 11h 6m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 75067 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 20.0 | 877.92 |
| 0.25 | 20.0 | 877.92 |
| 0.50 | 334.7 | 563.22 |
| 0.75 | 334.7 | 563.22 |
| 0.95 | 897.92 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the winner of the next Colombian Senate election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Government Alliance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance. The Government Alliance compromises all parties that have at least one minister in the national government on the day of the 2026 congressional elections
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:53:53.372155
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