KXCPI-25SEP-T0.3
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2025?
0.3%
$0.69
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.68 | $0.69 | $0.69 | 1.0¢ | 68.5% |
| NO | $0.31 | $0.32 | $0.32 | 1.0¢ | 31.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.68 | 890 | $0.69 | 75 |
| NO | $0.31 | 75 | $0.32 | 890 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.6892 | 0.8446 | 22020 |
| $0.3108 | -0.8446 | 21934 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.680 – 0.690 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.02 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0008 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-13 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-15 08:29 AM ET (23d 14h 54m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-15 10:00 AM ET (23d 16h 25m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 18974097 |
| 24h Volume | 1834 |
| Open Interest | 35175 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.05 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 971.0 | 111039.15 |
| 0.25 | 8171.0 | 103839.15 |
| 0.50 | 23371.0 | 88639.15 |
| 0.75 | 56560.5 | 55449.65 |
| 0.95 | 79681.15 | 32329.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in September 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market will always close on 8:29 AM on the scheduled day of the data release (October 15, 2025). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T21:34:17.815725
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