KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-50
Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?
$0.44

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.37 $0.41 $0.44 7.0¢ 40.5%
NO $0.56 $0.59 $0.63 7.0¢ 59.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.37 200 $0.44 35
NO $0.56 35 $0.63 200
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.4296 0.7021 200
$0.5704 -0.7021 235

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.370 – 0.440
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0196
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-12-30 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2029-03-31 11:00 AM ET (1284d 10h 7m)
Expected Expiration2029-03-31 11:00 AM ET (1284d 10h 7m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity984028
24h Volume0
Open Interest751
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0592.222015.51
0.2592.222015.51
0.50323.621784.11
0.75437.621670.11
0.95822.731285.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the U.S. federal debt increases to 50 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?
$0.68
Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?
$0.93

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:52:24.226739

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →