KXDENMARKPARLI-26-SD
Who will win the next Danish general election?
::
$0.7

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.6 $0.65 $0.7 10.0¢ 65.0%
NO $0.3 $0.35 $0.4 10.0¢ 35.0%
Overround (asks): 10.0% Underround (bids): 10.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.6 102 $0.7 97
NO $0.3 97 $0.4 102
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6513 0.0251 102
$0.3487 -0.0251 97

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.600 – 0.700
Band Width0.100

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.0
NO Edge (ticks)-5.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.0013
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-07-15 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-12-31 10:00 AM ET (828d 13h 36m)
Expected Expiration2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (463d 13h 36m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity-59576
24h Volume0
Open Interest3
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.01688.58
0.2520.01688.58
0.5020.01688.58
0.751189.1519.48
0.951510.58198.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the winner of the next Danish general election in 2026 is Social Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:23:53.551780

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