KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSMC-25OCT16-CHIN
What will Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited say during their next earnings call?
$0.65
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.6 | $0.62 | $0.65 | 5.0¢ | 62.5% |
| NO | $0.35 | $0.38 | $0.4 | 5.0¢ | 37.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.6 | 52 | $0.65 | 89 |
| NO | $0.35 | 89 | $0.4 | 52 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.6184 | -0.2624 | 193 |
| $0.3816 | 0.2624 | 289 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.600 – 0.650 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 4.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.05 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0016 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-17 10:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-31 11:59 PM ET (37d 23h 6m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-31 11:59 PM ET (37d 23h 6m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 85528 |
| 24h Volume | 400 |
| Open Interest | 573 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.7 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 921.02 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 921.02 |
| 0.50 | 7.7 | 918.32 |
| 0.75 | 713.22 | 207.8 |
| 0.95 | 713.22 | 207.8 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If China is said by any Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Video of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited earnings call will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited earnings call will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:52:59.550369
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