KXEPSTEINBILL-26JAN01
House passes bill to release Epstein files this year?
$0.62
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.61 | $0.61 | $0.62 | 1.0¢ | 61.5% |
| NO | $0.38 | $0.39 | $0.39 | 1.0¢ | 38.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.61 | 67 | $0.62 | 74 |
| NO | $0.38 | 74 | $0.39 | 67 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.6148 | -0.0496 | 2422 |
| $0.3852 | 0.0496 | 483 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.610 – 0.620 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.07 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -5.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.04 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0048 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-04 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-01-01 12:00 AM ET (99d 2h 3m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 12:00 AM ET (99d 2h 3m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 870754 |
| 24h Volume | 1834 |
| Open Interest | 14186 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.13 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 30.53 | 7146.44 |
| 0.25 | 197.22 | 6979.75 |
| 0.50 | 372.22 | 6804.75 |
| 0.75 | 3246.68 | 4305.29 |
| 0.95 | 3931.72 | 3283.25 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a bill that mandates any part of the federal government release files related to Jeffrey Epstein has ||chamber_stage|| before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:56:21.055051
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