KXFEDMENTION-25OCT-CONS
Will Powell say Consumer Confidence at his Oct 2025 press conference?
$0.22
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.17 | $0.2 | $0.22 | 5.0¢ | 19.5% |
| NO | $0.78 | $0.81 | $0.83 | 5.0¢ | 80.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.17 | 25 | $0.22 | 1971 |
| NO | $0.78 | 1971 | $0.83 | 25 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1706 | -0.9749 | 57 |
| $0.8294 | 0.9749 | 3031 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.170 – 0.220 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 3.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0294 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-17 10:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-30 10:00 AM ET (38d 19h 8m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-29 02:00 PM ET (37d 23h 8m) |
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 528765 |
| 24h Volume | 2023 |
| Open Interest | 2072 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.98 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 5026.19 |
| 0.25 | 754.19 | 4286.0 |
| 0.50 | 5026.19 | 1000.0 |
| 0.75 | 5026.19 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 5026.19 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Consumer Confidence at his Oct 2025 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Video of the || Address || will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the || Address || will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. If the event does not occur before Oct 30, 2025, then a strike for the event not occurring will resolve to Yes and all other strikes will resolve to No.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T18:51:34.111472
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