KXG7LEADEROUT-36-KS
Will Keir Starmer leave office next in this set?
:: Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
$0.06
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.06 | 5.0¢ | 3.5% |
| NO | $0.94 | $0.96 | $0.99 | 5.0¢ | 96.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 104 | $0.06 | 8 |
| NO | $0.94 | 8 | $0.99 | 104 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0564 | 0.8571 | 104 |
| $0.9436 | -0.8571 | 408 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.060 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0164 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-23 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2036-01-01 10:00 AM ET (3752d 20h 27m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2036-01-01 10:00 AM ET (3752d 20h 27m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | -77074 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1206 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 1.04 | 1530.47 |
| 0.25 | 73.52 | 1457.99 |
| 0.50 | 73.52 | 1457.99 |
| 0.75 | 73.52 | 1457.99 |
| 0.95 | 1531.51 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Keir Starmer is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-22T18:32:37.211584
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