KXGDP-25OCT30-T2.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2025?
2.5%
$0.7

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.67 $0.69 $0.7 3.0¢ 68.5%
NO $0.3 $0.32 $0.33 3.0¢ 31.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.67 10000 $0.7 79
NO $0.3 79 $0.33 10000
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6998 0.9843 10100
$0.3002 -0.9843 10771

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.670 – 0.700
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.03
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.02
Micro Pull ($) 0.0098
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-07-10 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-10-30 08:29 AM ET (36d 7h 40m)
Expected Expiration2025-10-30 10:00 AM ET (36d 9h 11m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity12075562
24h Volume5322
Open Interest65708
OI Turnover (24h)0.08
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05768.077979.3
0.254822.075925.3
0.5014055.7564255.55
0.7534611.6643701.64
0.9546315.333879.5
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q3 2025, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:43.368060

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