KXGGDRAMATV-26-SEV
Will Severance win Golden Globe for Television Series - Drama?
$0.36

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.24 $0.3 $0.36 12.0¢ 30.0%
NO $0.64 $0.7 $0.76 12.0¢ 70.0%
Overround (asks): 12.0% Underround (bids): 12.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.24 93 $0.36 41
NO $0.64 41 $0.76 93
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.3233 0.3881 0
$0.6767 -0.3881 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.240 – 0.360
Band Width0.120

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-6.0
NO Edge (ticks)-6.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.09
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.09
Micro Pull ($) 0.0233
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-15 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-01-11 10:00 AM ET (474d 10h 14m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-11 11:59 PM ET (110d 0h 13m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity288885
24h Volume5
Open Interest122
OI Turnover (24h)0.04
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0510.051613.54
0.25116.371507.22
0.50298.971324.62
0.75820.07803.52
0.951425.59435.5
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Severance has won a Golden Globe for Television Series - Drama at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 83rd Golden Globes are expected to be held on January 11, 2026.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:17.234565

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