KXHIGHCHI-25SEP21-B77.5
Will the high temp in Chicago be 77-78° on Sep 21, 2025?
77° to 78°
$0.01
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 63592 |
| NO | $0.99 | 63592 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 69197 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 9 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.22 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -4.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.22 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-20 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-22 12:59 AM ET (0d 1h 13m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET (0d 10h 14m) |
Early Close: The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM ET on September 21, 2025 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00
AM ET following the release of the data for September 21, 2025, or one week after September 21, 2025.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 772682 |
| 24h Volume | 8484 |
| Open Interest | 5198 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 1.63 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 744.02 | 7150.57 |
| 0.25 | 923.27 | 6971.57 |
| 0.50 | 1199.27 | 6723.82 |
| 0.75 | 1933.58 | 6017.26 |
| 0.95 | 2944.59 | 4950.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for September 21, 2025, is between 77-78° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-22T03:45:10.483952
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