KXHURCAT-IMELDA-T3
Will Imelda become a Category 3 hurricane?
Category 3
$0.29
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.22 | $0.26 | $0.29 | 7.0¢ | 25.5% |
| NO | $0.71 | $0.74 | $0.78 | 7.0¢ | 74.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.22 | 32 | $0.29 | 9 |
| NO | $0.71 | 9 | $0.78 | 32 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2746 | 0.561 | 32 |
| $0.7254 | -0.561 | 209 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.220 – 0.290 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0146 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-06-25 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-01 11:58 PM ET (69d 0h 11m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-01 10:00 AM ET (68d 10h 12m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | -7449 |
| 24h Volume | 600 |
| Open Interest | 800 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.75 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 50.11 | 422.44 |
| 0.25 | 115.05 | 357.5 |
| 0.50 | 184.96 | 287.59 |
| 0.75 | 368.25 | 104.3 |
| 0.95 | 472.55 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Imelda reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 111 mph according to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Should the event occur prior to December 01, 2025, the market will expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:47:08.971112
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →