KXIRELANDPRES-25-JGAV

Who will be elected President of Ireland in 2025?

:: Fianna Fáil

$0.74

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.1	$0.42	$0.74	64.0¢	42.0%
NO	$0.26	$0.58	$0.9	64.0¢	58.0%

Overround (asks): 64.0% Underround (bids): 64.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.1	50	$0.74	1386
NO	$0.26	1386	$0.9	50

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.1223	-0.9304	0
$0.8777	0.9304	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.100 – 0.740
Band Width	0.640

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-32.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-32.0
Vig (bps/h)	5

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	-0.2977

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-09-15 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2027-11-11 10:00 AM ET (779d 14h 28m)
Expected Expiration	2025-11-12 10:00 AM ET (50d 14h 28m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	185241
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	0
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	4.01	1549.4
0.25	9.01	1544.4
0.50	9.01	1544.4
0.75	1109.65	518.76
0.95	1109.65	443.76

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Jim Gavin is elected President of Ireland in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:31:27.696515

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