KXMRBEASTMENTION-25OCT16-WAT
What will MrBeast say during Next MrBeast Youtube Video?
$0.55
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.52 | $0.54 | $0.55 | 3.0¢ | 53.5% |
| NO | $0.45 | $0.47 | $0.48 | 3.0¢ | 46.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.52 | 88 | $0.55 | 505 |
| NO | $0.45 | 505 | $0.48 | 88 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.5245 | -0.7032 | 1120 |
| $0.4755 | 0.7032 | 2167 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.520 – 0.550 |
| Band Width | 0.030 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.03 |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0155 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-16 04:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-16 10:00 AM ET (22d 9h 7m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-16 10:00 AM ET (22d 9h 7m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 950942 |
| 24h Volume | 58 |
| Open Interest | 1994 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.03 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 10.0 | 7494.16 |
| 0.25 | 190.0 | 7314.16 |
| 0.50 | 1563.79 | 5940.37 |
| 0.75 | 5526.16 | 1978.0 |
| 0.95 | 6416.16 | 1088.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If MrBeast says Water during his Next MrBeast Youtube Video, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Video of the Next MrBeast Youtube Video will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Next MrBeast Youtube Video will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details. For the purposes of this market, “MrBeast’s next video” refers to the first full-length upload on MrBeast’s main YouTube channel (@MrBeast) after Sep 16, 2025 at 4:00 PM. The video must be at least four minutes long to qualify. YouTube Shorts, teaser trailers, live streams, community posts, and uploads on other channels (e.g., Beast Philanthropy, MrBeast Gaming, Beast Reacts) are excluded. Please see full rules for more details.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:52:44.898128
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