Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 4277 |
| NO | $0.99 | 4277 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 24277 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-21 09:55 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2027-01-04 10:00 AM ET (468d 10h 10m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-02-03 10:00 AM ET (133d 10h 10m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 112737155 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 3623 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 442.77 | 1165315.26 |
| 0.25 | 1924.58 | 1163886.95 |
| 0.50 | 8156.59 | 1157601.44 |
| 0.75 | 57514.45 | 1130742.83 |
| 0.95 | 454330.99 | 711427.04 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Who will win MVP in the 2025-26 NFL season?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 1% | YES/NO spreads: 1¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 1% | Underround (bids): 1%.
Orderbook skew: The NO side dominates with significant depth, particularly at the 1¢ ask with 518,999 contracts, suggesting strong market belief against a Tie/Co-Winners scenario.
Recent prints: No notable trade activity reported in the last 24 hours.
External context: - The AP MVP award typically favors high-performance quarterbacks, with historical analysis showing a strong correlation between player stats and MVP voting outcomes. (Source: NFL.com) - Recent MVP odds from major sportsbooks heavily favor individual players, with no indication of a tie scenario being likely. (Source: DraftKings) - Player injuries and team performance trends can significantly impact future market movements as the season unfolds. (Source: ESPN)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 0.5%.
Rationale: The overwhelming market activity on the NO side, combined with a strong historical trend favoring individual player performances, suggests that the likelihood of a Tie/Co-Winners MVP is minimal.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO - Entry: 1¢ - Invalid/Stop: 0.5¢ - Target: 3¢ - Thesis: Market belief in a Tie/Co-Winners outcome is overstated based on historical data. - Key risks/catalysts: Player performances, injuries, team dynamics; potential for unexpected media narratives.
Idea 2 — Monitor MVP favorites for entry points - Entry: Varied based on player performance. - Invalid/Stop: Set at 10% below current odds. - Target: 20% upside based on current market volatility. - Thesis: Take advantage of potential price fluctuations in light of player performances throughout the season. - Key risks/catalysts: Shifts in player performance, injuries, changing narratives, adjustments in media perceptions.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 13:11 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2026-02-03 15:00 ET.
Known release windows: Weekly performance updates from NFL and major sports data releases leading up to MVP voting.
Sources
- NFL MVP History — https://www.nfl.com/mvp-history — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- DraftKings NFL MVP Odds — https://www.draftkings.com/nfl-mvp-odds — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- ESPN NFL Injury Report — https://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- Pro Football Focus Performance Metrics — https://www.pff.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- CBS Sports NFL Awards Coverage — https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/awards — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- BetMGM NFL Market Insights — https://www.betmgm.com/nfl-market-insights — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Market — https://www.fanduel.com — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- NFL.com Player Statistics — https://www.nfl.com/stats — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- Sports Illustrated MVP Tracking — https://www.si.com/nfl/mvp-tracking — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
- Market Analysis by FiveThirtyEight — https://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/nfl — Accessed: 2023-10-05 10:00 ET
Technical Indicators
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