KXNGASMIN-25DEC29-N1.50
Will the price of natural gas get below $1.50 per million BTU by December 29, 2025?
1.49or below
$0.04

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.03 $0.04 3.0¢ 2.5%
NO $0.96 $0.97 $0.99 3.0¢ 97.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 0 $0.04 0
NO $0.96 0 $0.99 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.03 0.0 0
$0.97 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.010 – 0.040
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)300

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.04
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity3589544
24h Volume23
Open Interest23
OI Turnover (24h)1.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the spot price of Henry Hub natural gas hits below $1.50 per million BTU on any day between January 07, 2025 and December 29, 2025 as reported by the EIA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

1.49or below
$0.04
1.99or below
$0.07

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-12T10:21:25.287564

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