KXNORWAYPARTY-25-CON
Will the Conservative party win the most seats in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election?
$0.01
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 32220 |
| NO | $0.99 | 32220 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 33256 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-12-04 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-09-08 10:00 AM ET (351d 14h 4m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-08 10:00 AM ET (-13d 9h 55m) |
Early Close: This market will close and expire early after the winner of the election is announced.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3541590 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1524 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 335.31 | 35652.13 |
| 0.25 | 400.26 | 35587.18 |
| 0.50 | 403.38 | 35584.06 |
| 0.75 | 403.38 | 35584.06 |
| 0.95 | 1561.53 | 34425.91 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Conservative party wins the most seats after the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
If the top two parties have the same number of seats, all will resolve to No.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T23:55:42.396503
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