KXNYCMINWAGE-27JAN01
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
$0.21
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.2 | $0.2 | $0.21 | 1.0¢ | 20.5% |
| NO | $0.79 | $0.8 | $0.8 | 1.0¢ | 79.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.2 | 0 | $0.21 | 0 |
| NO | $0.79 | 0 | $0.8 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.8 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.200 – 0.210 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3413297 |
| 24h Volume | 19 |
| Open Interest | 2107 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.01 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a bill establishing a minimum wage of at least $30 per hour for New York City set to go in effect 2030 or earlier has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. For standard legislation requiring executive approval, this includes final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods. For legislation not requiring executive approval, this includes final passage and completion of required waiting periods. For constitutional amendments, this includes passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes. For executive orders, this includes official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness. Legislative passage without completed executive action, passage by only some required bodies, provisional passage, non-binding resolutions, and draft orders do not constitute enactment. Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T07:44:57.087216
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