KXOTEEPSTEIN-26-TMAS
Will Thomas Massie vote for releasing the Epstein files?
$0.79
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.76 | $0.78 | $0.79 | 3.0¢ | 77.5% |
| NO | $0.21 | $0.23 | $0.24 | 3.0¢ | 22.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.76 | 4 | $0.79 | 32 |
| NO | $0.21 | 32 | $0.24 | 4 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.7633 | -0.7778 | 107 |
| $0.2367 | 0.7778 | 351 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.760 – 0.790 |
| Band Width | 0.030 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0167 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-18 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 10h 14m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 10h 14m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 800887 |
| 24h Volume | 12 |
| Open Interest | 13750 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 16.07 | 5836.71 |
| 0.25 | 428.21 | 5424.57 |
| 0.50 | 428.21 | 5424.57 |
| 0.75 | 504.93 | 5385.35 |
| 0.95 | 4855.85 | 1470.03 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Thomas Massie votes for releasing the Epstein files in the House before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
This market pertains to the final vote on any such measure, not on a rule or procedural vote to allow such a vote to happen.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:45:03.661780
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