KXPAYROLLS-25SEP-T-100000
Will above -100000 jobs be added in September 2025?
-100,000
$1.0
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.02% |
| NO | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.98 | 31634 | $1.0 | 0 |
| NO | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 31634 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 76403 |
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.980 – 1.000 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-22 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-10-03 08:29 AM ET (9d 9h 29m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-03 10:00 AM ET (9d 11h 0m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 513460 |
| 24h Volume | 11 |
| Open Interest | 42913 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 22.0 | 74227.4 |
| 0.25 | 183.08 | 74061.32 |
| 0.50 | 183.08 | 74061.32 |
| 0.75 | 183.08 | 74061.32 |
| 0.95 | 20343.88 | 73968.32 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -100000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:59:44.458928
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →