KXPOILIEVREOUT-26FEB15
Will Pierre Poilievre resign as the conservative party leader before Feb 15, 2026?
$0.44
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.34 | $0.39 | $0.44 | 10.0¢ | 39.0% |
| NO | $0.56 | $0.61 | $0.66 | 10.0¢ | 61.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.34 | 0 | $0.44 | 0 |
| NO | $0.56 | 0 | $0.66 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.39 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.61 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.340 – 0.440 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1000 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 757340 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 200 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Feb 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T04:36:17.083063
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