KXPORTERDROPOUT-26JUN02
Will Katie Porter drop out of the 2026 California gubernatorial election before Jun 2, 2026?
$0.24
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | $0.2 | $0.24 | 8.0¢ | 20.0% |
| NO | $0.76 | $0.8 | $0.84 | 8.0¢ | 80.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | 0 | $0.24 | 0 |
| NO | $0.76 | 0 | $0.84 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.8 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.160 – 0.240 |
| Band Width | 0.080 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 800 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 445183 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 626 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Katie Porter drops out of 2026 California gubernatorial election before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
"Dropped out" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T04:37:57.485241
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