KXPRESIRELAND-25-JGAV
Will Jim Gavin win the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?
:: Fianna Fáil
$0.41
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.32 | $0.36 | $0.41 | 9.0¢ | 36.5% |
| NO | $0.59 | $0.64 | $0.68 | 9.0¢ | 63.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.32 | 200 | $0.41 | 92 |
| NO | $0.59 | 92 | $0.68 | 200 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3816 | 0.3699 | 200 |
| $0.6184 | -0.3699 | 92 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.320 – 0.410 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0216 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-15 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-10-27 10:00 AM ET (400d 15h 18m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-27 10:00 AM ET (35d 15h 18m) |
Early Close: The market will close and expire following reporting that an individual has won the 2025 Irish presidential election.The market will close and expire following reporting that an individual has won the 2025 Irish presidential election.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 250476 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 20.0 | 452.76 |
| 0.25 | 20.0 | 452.76 |
| 0.50 | 121.72 | 351.04 |
| 0.75 | 121.72 | 351.04 |
| 0.95 | 472.76 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Jim Gavin wins the 2025 Irish presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T22:41:57.267005
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