KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T3
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?
3:: 75 bps
$0.67

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.65 $0.66 $0.67 2.0¢ 66.0%
NO $0.33 $0.34 $0.35 2.0¢ 34.0%
Overround (asks): 2.0% Underround (bids): 2.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.65 22000 $0.67 7426
NO $0.33 7426 $0.35 22000
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.665 0.4953 22828
$0.335 -0.4953 70857

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.650 – 0.670
Band Width0.020

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.01
Micro Pull ($) 0.005
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-12-20 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (101d 10h 10m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 20h 11m)
Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity40678529
24h Volume11004
Open Interest713650
OI Turnover (24h)0.02
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.05442.8418209.84
0.25546.44418056.2
0.501926.33416681.31
0.7580988.58352338.81
0.9592744.21325858.43
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the Fed cuts 3 times before 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). Note: this detail has been included in past iterations including the previous iteration titled, "Number of rate cuts in 2024?"

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T18:48:32.921882

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