KXRECCOUNT-25-1
Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2025?
:: Bills passed in Trump's first year (2017)
$0.93

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.78 $0.85 $0.93 15.0¢ 85.5%
NO $0.07 $0.14 $0.22 15.0¢ 14.5%
Overround (asks): 15.0% Underround (bids): 15.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.78 2 $0.93 500
NO $0.07 500 $0.22 2
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.7806 -0.992 0
$0.2194 0.992 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.780 – 0.930
Band Width0.150

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-7.5
NO Edge (ticks)-7.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.02
ΔSpread (¢) 5.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.02
Micro Pull ($) -0.0694
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-12-19 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 17h 36m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 17h 36m)
Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity548856
24h Volume1172
Open Interest7596
OI Turnover (24h)0.15
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.53202.8
0.25245.542977.76
0.50245.542977.76
0.75624.732598.57
0.951928.791294.51
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If 1 reconciliation bills become law in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Will 5 reconciliation bills be passed in 2025?
$0.01
Will 4 reconciliation bills be passed in 2025?
$0.01
:: Record for most bills passed in one year
$0.03
:: Tied for most bills passed in one year
$0.17

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T21:23:50.421348

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