KXRWAMCAPAVAX-AVALANCHE-26JAN01-500
Will RWA market cap on Avalanche be above $500 on Jan 1, 2026?
$0.69
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.61 | $0.65 | $0.69 | 8.0¢ | 65.0% |
| NO | $0.31 | $0.35 | $0.39 | 8.0¢ | 35.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.61 | 200 | $0.69 | 200 |
| NO | $0.31 | 200 | $0.39 | 200 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.65 | 0.0 | 200 |
| $0.35 | 0.0 | 200 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.610 – 0.690 |
| Band Width | 0.080 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-09 04:45 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (99d 3h 32m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 13h 33m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 223809 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 2.0 | 1570.11 |
| 0.25 | 102.27 | 1469.84 |
| 0.50 | 202.27 | 1469.84 |
| 0.75 | 462.27 | 1109.84 |
| 0.95 | 624.27 | 947.84 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the total RWA market cap on Avalanche is above 500 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market measures the total market capitalization in USD of all Real World Asset tokens on the specified blockchain, including all layers, subnets, parachains, or equivalent network divisions, as calculated by DeFiLlama at 10:00 AM ET on the measurement date. If DeFiLlama data is unavailable at the specified time, the last available value will be used. The blockchain must be actively tracked by DeFiLlama with RWA data available.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:26:11.980601
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