KXSPOTIFYBILLIONS-25DEC31-LON
Will Lonely (with benny blanco) hit 1 Billion Spotify streams in 2025?
:: Justin Bieber, benny blanco
$0.06

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 3.0¢ 4.5%
NO $0.94 $0.95 $0.97 3.0¢ 95.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.03 10 $0.06 5
NO $0.94 5 $0.97 10
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.05 0.3333 242
$0.95 -0.3333 499

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.030 – 0.060
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) 0.01
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-05-02 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 16h 11m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 16h 11m)
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the event occus.

Book & Activity

Liquidity88782
24h Volume0
Open Interest62
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.052.72647.94
0.25101.6549.06
0.50142.6508.06
0.75203.6447.06
0.95284.6366.06
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Lonely (with benny blanco) has above 1 Billion total streams on Spotify by Dec 31, 2025 at 10 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Total stream count will be determined using the Spotify desktop app at 10 AM ET, based on the exact number displayed at that time. Any updates or changes after 10 AM ET will NOT be considered. The song can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/track/3S8jK1mGzQi24ilFb45DAZ?si=d1d3a13ccf394256

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T22:48:04.944570

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