KXTARIFFREVENUE-25-300

How high revenue will tariffs bring in in 2025?

$0.67

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.61	$0.64	$0.67	6.0¢	64.0%
NO	$0.33	$0.36	$0.39	6.0¢	36.0%

Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.61	367	$0.67	32
NO	$0.33	32	$0.39	367

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.6652	0.8396	367
$0.3348	-0.8396	211

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.610 – 0.670
Band Width	0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-3.0
Vig (bps/h)	0

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	-0.01
ΔSpread (¢)	-1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	-0.07
Micro Pull ($)	0.0252

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-07-18 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (99d 2h 1m)
Expected Expiration	2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 12h 2m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	214868
24h Volume	58
Open Interest	529
OI Turnover (24h)	0.11
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	13.32	2878.25
0.25	484.92	2406.65
0.50	567.42	2324.15
0.75	2016.69	874.88
0.95	2080.43	849.14

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If tariff revenue is at least $300 billion in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:57:27.660566

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