KXTESLA-25-Q4-490000
How many Tesla deliveries will there be this quarter?
490000
$0.12

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.05 $0.09 $0.12 7.0¢ 8.5%
NO $0.88 $0.92 $0.95 7.0¢ 91.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.05 0 $0.12 0
NO $0.88 0 $0.95 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.09 0.0 0
$0.92 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.050 – 0.120
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)700

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity3476253
24h Volume0
Open Interest7938
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Tesla has at least 490000 total deliveries in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

430000
$0.5
450000
$0.27
470000
$0.16
490000
$0.12
510000
$0.08

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-11-12T15:10:24.082326

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →