KXTORNADO-25SEP-125
Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in September?
125
$0.24
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.12 | $0.24 | 23.0¢ | 12.5% |
| NO | $0.76 | $0.88 | $0.99 | 23.0¢ | 87.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 250 | $0.24 | 3 |
| NO | $0.76 | 3 | $0.99 | 250 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.2373 | 0.9763 | 0 |
| $0.7627 | -0.9763 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.240 |
| Band Width | 0.230 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -11.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -11.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 10 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.1 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 21.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.03 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.1173 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-08-20 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-30 11:59 PM ET (9d 0h 51m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-10-01 10:00 AM ET (9d 10h 52m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 514320 |
| 24h Volume | 18 |
| Open Interest | 18 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 1.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 2.5 | 5137.2 |
| 0.25 | 3.22 | 5136.48 |
| 0.50 | 3.22 | 5136.48 |
| 0.75 | 3.22 | 5136.48 |
| 0.95 | 1239.7 | 4850.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Sep is above 125 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-22T03:07:04.299583
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