KXTRUMPFIRE-25-1
Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2026?
$0.17
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | $0.12 | $0.17 | 9.0¢ | 12.5% |
| NO | $0.83 | $0.88 | $0.92 | 9.0¢ | 87.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.08 | 195 | $0.17 | 28 |
| NO | $0.83 | 28 | $0.92 | 195 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.1587 | 0.7489 | 396 |
| $0.8413 | -0.7489 | 28 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.080 – 0.170 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0387 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2024-12-21 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 14h 51m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 14h 51m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 19514275 |
| 24h Volume | 74 |
| Open Interest | 6907 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.01 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 798.49 | 132935.43 |
| 0.25 | 1076.15 | 132628.02 |
| 0.50 | 1477.9 | 132221.02 |
| 0.75 | 2657.18 | 131416.74 |
| 0.95 | 30241.92 | 103932.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If President Trump announces that he has fired, dismissed, or asked for the resignation of exactly 1 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An “acting” member of the Cabinet is not included.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-22T00:08:47.464928
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