KXTRUMPNOMMAX-PH
Will Pete Hegseth get the most votes of any Trump Cabinet nominee?
$0.01
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
| NO | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.01% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 4428 |
| NO | $0.99 | 4428 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 6328 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.010 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-01-04 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 21h 45m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 21h 45m) |
Early Close: This market will close after a person has been confirmed in all Cabinet-level roles.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 21362326 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 491 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 85.66 | 213606.6 |
| 0.25 | 757.22 | 212935.04 |
| 0.50 | 1477.49 | 212214.77 |
| 0.75 | 3932.09 | 209760.17 |
| 0.95 | 24215.66 | 189476.6 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Pete Hegseth has received the most votes of any of Trump's Cabinet nominees, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
If no vote count is recorded for a given nominee, then that will not be counted. Once each position has had someone confirmed/appointed to the position, then the market will Expire. If nominees tie, then the nominee who was confirmed first will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet-level positions are the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T17:14:22.692588
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