KXTRUMPSNL-29
Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?
$0.19

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.14 $0.17 $0.19 5.0¢ 16.5%
NO $0.81 $0.83 $0.86 5.0¢ 83.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.14 242 $0.19 92
NO $0.81 92 $0.86 242
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.1762 0.4491 303
$0.8238 -0.4491 492

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.140 – 0.190
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.03
Micro Pull ($) 0.0062
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration2029-01-20 10:00 AM ET (1214d 1h 33m)
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Book & Activity

Liquidity4443286
24h Volume418
Open Interest3717
OI Turnover (24h)0.11
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0562.3937977.48
0.25448.4737645.15
0.50797.1237242.25
0.751410.1636629.21
0.954081.4335001.99
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If President Trump does a new appearance on SNL before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T13:26:37.715962

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