KXTSAW-25SEP21-A2.15
Will more than 2150000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?
2.15 million
$1.0
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.02% |
| NO | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.98 | 1234 | $1.0 | 0 |
| NO | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 1234 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 1234 |
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.980 – 1.000 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-15 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-21 11:59 PM ET (0d 7h 49m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-21 10:00 AM ET (-0d 6h 9m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2468 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 1209.32 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 1209.32 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 1209.32 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 1209.32 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 1209.32 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.15 million for the week ending September 21, 2025, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Contract will expire at the sooner of the first 9:00 AM following the release of the data for September 21, 2025, or one week after September 21, 2025. The Last Trading Date and Time will always be 11:59 PM on September 21, 2025.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-21T20:09:08.826256
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