KXUFSD-25-MAR
Will Tesla launch unsupervised full self-driving to the public before Mar 2026?
$0.2
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.13 | $0.17 | $0.2 | 7.0¢ | 16.5% |
| NO | $0.8 | $0.83 | $0.87 | 7.0¢ | 83.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.13 | 0 | $0.2 | 0 |
| NO | $0.8 | 0 | $0.87 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.17 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.83 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.130 – 0.200 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 700 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.09 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2752953 |
| 24h Volume | 116 |
| Open Interest | 465 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.25 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Tesla launches unsupervised full self-driving in their cars (including in a robotaxi service) before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Clarification (7/3/25 at 3:15am ET): For this contract to resolve YES, all of the following must hold: (1) Tesla must describe the service as unsupervised full self-driving. Any service that Tesla/Elon Musk describes as requiring supervision will not qualify. (2) The vehicle must not have an individual in the driver’s seat expected to supervise or intervene with the vehicle’s operation. (3) The Tesla(s) must be operating in a mode where no human is expected or required to monitor the driving performance, and the vehicle must not mandate a licensed driver to be present. This means that launches where Tesla has Safety Monitors in place are excluded. (4) The FSD capability must be released to the public. This means that publicity stunts, invitation-only programs, or programs that are not available for commercial release are all excluded.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-12T23:15:21.580067
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