KXVOTEMEANS-26-SCOL
Will Susan Collins vote for Casey Means?
$0.31

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.08 $0.2 $0.31 23.0¢ 19.5%
NO $0.69 $0.81 $0.92 23.0¢ 80.5%
Overround (asks): 23.0% Underround (bids): 23.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.08 0 $0.31 0
NO $0.69 0 $0.92 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2 0.0 0
$0.81 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.080 – 0.310
Band Width0.230

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-11.5
NO Edge (ticks)-11.5
Vig (bps/h)2300

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.04
ΔSpread (¢) 6.0
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.01
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity510800
24h Volume250
Open Interest583
OI Turnover (24h)0.43
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Susan Collins votes Yea for Casey Means for Surgeon General before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-12T17:47:36.495184

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