KXVOTESHUTDOWNS-26T-RPAU
Will Rand Paul vote for the next government funding bill?
$0.05

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.05 $0.05 5.0¢ 4.88%
NO $0.95 $0.97 $1.0 5.0¢ 95.24%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.05 5000
NO $0.95 5000 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.05 0.0 0
$0.97 0.0 5005

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.050
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.12
NO Edge (ticks)-4.88
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-17 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 12h 33m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 12h 33m)
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Book & Activity

Liquidity244590
24h Volume0
Open Interest1357
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.02445.9
0.251254.81191.1
0.501254.81191.1
0.751254.81191.1
0.952414.2231.68
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Rand Paul votes for the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR) in the Senate before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-22T02:26:35.747862

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