SENATEIA-28-R
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
:: Current incumbent: Chuck Grassley
$0.67
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.59 | $0.63 | $0.67 | 8.0¢ | 63.0% |
| NO | $0.33 | $0.37 | $0.41 | 8.0¢ | 37.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.59 | 137 | $0.67 | 112 |
| NO | $0.33 | 112 | $0.41 | 137 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.634 | 0.1004 | 137 |
| $0.366 | -0.1004 | 112 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.590 – 0.670 |
| Band Width | 0.080 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.004 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-15 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2029-11-07 10:00 AM ET (1505d 10h 11m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2029-01-04 10:00 AM ET (1198d 10h 11m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 294589 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 20.0 | 3096.23 |
| 0.25 | 20.0 | 3096.23 |
| 0.50 | 20.0 | 3096.23 |
| 0.75 | 1435.87 | 1680.36 |
| 0.95 | 2141.23 | 1013.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:31.260568
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