WTAX-25-DEC31
Will a tax on unrealized capital gains become law before 2026?
Before 2026
$0.01

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.0 $0.01 $0.01 1.0¢ 1.0%
NO $0.99 $0.99 $1.0 1.0¢ 99.01%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.0 0 $0.01 469
NO $0.99 469 $1.0 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.01 0.0 0
$0.99 0.0 994

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.000 – 0.010
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.0
NO Edge (ticks)-1.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-04-25 07:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (101d 0h 52m)
Expected Expiration2025-12-31 10:00 AM ET (100d 0h 52m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity33206817
24h Volume0
Open Interest4081
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.058.44332057.9
0.25140.53331925.81
0.50414.88331651.46
0.751036.28331030.06
0.9510991.09321170.25
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If a bill becomes law before Dec 31, 2025 that imposes a new tax on wealth or unrealized capital gains, then the market resolves to Yes.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-22T14:07:58.176553

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