AITURING
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test before 2030?
Before 2030
$0.67

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.63 $0.65 $0.67 4.0¢ 65.0%
NO $0.33 $0.35 $0.37 4.0¢ 35.0%
Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.63 15 $0.67 814
NO $0.33 814 $0.37 15
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6307 -0.9638 3014
$0.3693 0.9638 2814

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.630 – 0.670
Band Width0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.0
NO Edge (ticks)-2.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0193
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-03-28 02:00 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2030-12-31 10:00 AM ET (1924d 13h 33m)
Expected Expiration2030-12-31 10:00 AM ET (1924d 13h 33m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity77419418
24h Volume0
Open Interest4324
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.059785.577184.72
0.2511700.2775051.45
0.5013197.0373776.19
0.7519848.5566903.17
0.9523101.7263792.5
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Kurzweil has won his bet that AI will pass the Turing Test by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:26:11.694143

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