CAPGAIN-2-25DEC31
Will the capital gains tax be raised by Dec 31, 2025?
$0.02

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 1.0¢ 1.5%
NO $0.98 $0.98 $0.99 1.0¢ 98.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.01 897 $0.02 600
NO $0.98 600 $0.99 897
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.016 0.1984 897
$0.984 -0.1984 1750

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.0100.020
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($) 0.006
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2024-04-24 04:50 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (99d 10h 27m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 20h 28m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity198085
24h Volume0
Open Interest5164
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0536.271162.52
0.25253.82944.97
0.50253.82944.97
0.75719.79479.0
0.95802.79396.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If a bill becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2025 that the effect of raising the top federal capital gains tax rate on net long-term capital gains to be strictly greater than 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Please note: there are currently three exceptions to the current 20% top tax rate on long-term capital gains, including sales of section 1202 qualified small business stock, net capital gains from selling collectibles and sales of unrecaptured section 1250 gain from selling section 1250 real property. Modifications or additions to that list do not affect the outcome of this market. Documentation of a bill which would treat net long-term capital gains as ordinary income for the purpose of taxation is encompassed in the Payout Criterion if the top tax rate on such income is above 20%. Bills which change the income which is taxable by the long-term capital gains tax or which is a surtax on the same taxable income are not encompassed in the Payout Criterion

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:31:28.380776

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