CAPGAIN-2-25DEC31
Will the capital gains tax be raised by Dec 31, 2025?
$0.02
Market Snapshot
Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.02 | 1.0¢ | 1.5% |
NO | $0.98 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 1.0¢ | 98.5% |
Order Book (Top)
Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.01 | 897 | $0.02 | 600 |
NO | $0.98 | 600 | $0.99 | 897 |
Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
---|---|---|
$0.016 | 0.1984 | 897 |
$0.984 | -0.1984 | 1750 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.020 |
Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
Metric | Value |
---|---|
ΔMid ($) | — |
ΔSpread (¢) | — |
ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
Micro Pull ($) | 0.006 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
Opens | 2024-04-24 04:50 PM ET |
Last Trade (Close) | 2025-12-31 11:59 PM ET (99d 10h 27m) |
Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 20h 28m) |
Book & Activity
Liquidity | 198085 |
24h Volume | 0 |
Open Interest | 5164 |
OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
---|---|---|
0.05 | 36.27 | 1162.52 |
0.25 | 253.82 | 944.97 |
0.50 | 253.82 | 944.97 |
0.75 | 719.79 | 479.0 |
0.95 | 802.79 | 396.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a bill becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2025 that the effect of raising the top federal capital gains tax rate on net long-term capital gains to be strictly greater than 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Please note: there are currently three exceptions to the current 20% top tax rate on long-term capital gains, including sales of section 1202 qualified small business stock, net capital gains from selling collectibles and sales of unrecaptured section 1250 gain from selling section 1250 real property. Modifications or additions to that list do not affect the outcome of this market. Documentation of a bill which would treat net long-term capital gains as ordinary income for the purpose of taxation is encompassed in the Payout Criterion if the top tax rate on such income is above 20%. Bills which change the income which is taxable by the long-term capital gains tax or which is a surtax on the same taxable income are not encompassed in the Payout Criterion
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-23T18:31:28.380776
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