GOVPARTYMT-28-R
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Montana
:: Current incumbent: Greg Gianforte
$0.86

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.74 $0.8 $0.86 12.0¢ 80.0%
NO $0.14 $0.2 $0.26 12.0¢ 20.0%
Overround (asks): 12.0% Underround (bids): 12.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.74 0 $0.86 0
NO $0.14 0 $0.26 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.8 0.0 0
$0.2 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.740 – 0.860
Band Width0.120

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-6.0
NO Edge (ticks)-6.0
Vig (bps/h)1200

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity241212
24h Volume0
Open Interest1082
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Montana pursuant to the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

::
$0.2
:: Current incumbent: Greg Gianforte
$0.86

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T21:03:34.213617

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