KXAGENCIES-26-50
Will DOGE cut at least 50 agencies?
$0.08
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | $0.06 | $0.08 | 5.0¢ | 5.5% |
| NO | $0.92 | $0.94 | $0.97 | 5.0¢ | 94.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | 0 | $0.08 | 0 |
| NO | $0.92 | 0 | $0.97 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.06 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.94 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.030 – 0.080 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 14758427 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1652 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If there are more than 50 fewer federal agencies (as of Jan 16, 2025) on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Clarification (6/13/25 at 3:15am ET): he market resolves based on the count of the reduction in federal agencies. The value of "441" agencies on the Federal Register has not been properly updated. While we will reference the Federal Register's list, we will exclude defunct agencies from our final count.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:30:26.707719
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